Nye was wrong about the number of species

Over eight years ago, the famous “Debate of the Decade” happened between Bill Nye and Ken Ham. I don't know if the debate lived up to its hype and, in the years since then, the interest in it has waned to an occassional cite on social media. However, Nye made one point that I continue to hear repeated fairly frequently. It's sad because Nye's point was epically wrong and it only endures because the people who repeat it are ignorant about how wrong it is. My goal is to correct that.

The point to which I refer was made by Nye at about 53 minutes into the video (view on YouTube). I'd write a transcript but Nye takes a while to make his point so it would take a lot of space to write it all out. I'll summarize instead. Nye says in the video that Ham claims that there were only 7,000 “kinds” when the Flood happened 4,000 years ago. Nye then said that a fair estimate of the number of species that exists today would be about 16,000,000. So, in order to go from 7,000 “kinds” to the 16 million species that exists today, about 11 new species would have to have appeared every single day!

Is 11 new species every day unreasonable? That sounds like a lot. As a matter of fact, it's only because it sounds like a lot that the argument seems to have weight. When you get right down to it, this is nothing more than an argument of incredulity, where the speaker tries to assert something is untrue on the flimsy grounds that it just sounds incredible. After all, 11 new species per day is only around 4,000 new species per year which is only .025% of 16 million. I don't know if that even seems unreasonable. If we look at the opposite end of the spectrum, we have been warned for years that thousands of species are going extinct every year. The Center for Biological Diversity says, “Scientists predict that more than 1 million species are on track for extinction in the coming decades.”

First off, I don't believe Nye is correct that Ham believes there were only 7,000 kinds in world in Noah's day. I suspect he misunderstood or is misrepresenting some creationist sources that estimate there were probably about 7,000 kinds on the Ark. There were plenty of species that survived outside the Ark! We'll get to that in a moment. Nye's estimate of the number of species is also suspect. Nye said 16 million. I've read varying estimates but the number of identified, extant species of creatures is closer to 1.5-1.9 million. Of course, there are more species that are certain to exist but just haven't been discovered. How many more there might be is somewhat subjective. 16 million is about 10 times the number of identified species. If we assumed a lower number, then a much lower speciation rate would be necessary. If we assumed only 400 new species per year (about 1-2 per day), we could have reached 1.6 million new species in only 4,000 years. There are probably more than 1.6 million species but, hopefully, you can see my point. Assuming a more conservative number of species, even a modest speciation rate could have reached that number in the time since the Flood.

But what if there are more species? What if there truly are 16 million or even 30 million as some scientists estimate? Here is the key flaw in Nye's point: The overwhelming majority of identified species are insects, bacteria, fungi, and plants. Noah did not have to accommodate any of these species (though many of them probably made it on board the Ark, either as food or carried by animals). The actual number of vertebrate species is closer to 80,000 but even ½ of these are marine animals. There are only about 40K species of terrestrial, vertebrate animals. That's a lot smaller than the “16 million species” straw man that Nye presented.

Nye also seems to conflate kinds and species. A species is a little more narrow than a “kind.” There are currently 32 species of cats but Noah only had 2 cats on the Ark. There are 8 species of bear but Noah only had 2 bears on the Ark. So even though there are more species of cats and bears, there are still only 1 cat and 1 bear kinds.  Do you see where I'm going with this? If there were 7,000 kinds on the Ark, there are still only 7,000 kinds of land animals alive today! It's probably less due to extinction.  7,000 kinds didn't become 40K kinds and certainly not 16.000.000 kinds.

Actually, we're not exactly sure how many kinds Noah had on the Ark, but some have estimated as few as 6,000 animals (3,000 kinds) needed to be on the Ark to account for the 40K terrestrial, vertebrate species estimated to exist today. That's only around 9 new species per year for 4,000 years. If there were, say, 14,000 animals (7,000 kinds) on the Ark, there would only have to be about 4 new species per year to account for all the land species that exist today. Suddenly, it's not unreasonable at all.

In my opinion, Bill Nye failed miserably in this debate. One of his key points, a point that has been touted by some as one of his hardest hitting, is a complete bust. Seven thousand kinds did not have to become 16 million species. Bill Nye either doesn't understand the creation argument or has deliberately misrepresented it.